09-23-08
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Registered User
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Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 15
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Count Obama the Winner, Unless...
If the election were held tomorrow, Tuesday, September 23rd, it is likely that Senator Barack Obama would win the election by a margin larger than four points. Fortunately for John McCain's campaign, there are three Presidential debates yet to be played out on our calendars. The first Presidential debate is scheduled for Friday evening.
On September 11th, McCain held a four point advantage over Obama in Gallup's Daily Poll. By the time the stock market tanked on Monday, September 15th, McCain was up by only two. As the week wore on and the voting public witnessed McCain's response to the economic turmoil, his lead evaporated entirely and Obama now holds a four point advantage.
Try as he might, there is no reasonable way that Arizona's senior senator will be able to adequately distance himself from the burden of the Bush Administration policies. Worse, McCain committed one public gaffe after another last week. He also appeared to be either off a beat or two to the rhythm of the campaign or just plain tired, take your pick. He has resorted to reading from cue cards at campaign appearances. Are his handlers urging him not to ad lib and to avoid spontaneous, off-the-cuff responses?
After the verbal barrages have been fired by the contenders at this Friday's debate on the University of Mississippi campus, each party's strategists and analysts will declare their own candidate the winner and provide compelling arguments as to why what they say is so. Although McCain has the extreme advantage and experience in matters of foreign policy ... it is highly questionable whether he will be able to present himself as a deserving Presidential contender. Just the same, some of McCain's short, one sentence responses will hit their mark and appear to damage Obama.
Meanwhile, Obama needs to connect with his audience -- not speak above and beyond them. Lacking not a drop of prowess where scripted oratory is concerned, the Illinois Senator's lofty answers to simple questions sometimes miss their mark and are woefully detached from what an average voter needs to hear. If Obama can connect with viewers as being more like them and not an elitist, the gap in the poll numbers may spread to his advantage.
This election would be a slam dunk for Obama if he was white and didn't have an Islamic name. Sadly, there are still many voters who are unable to look past one's race and name -- even in 2008. Yep, people with the 1950's mindset of Joe Redneck and Granny Backwoods will never be comfortable with a "...black man in the White House," at least not in their lifetimes.
There are still things that could work to Obama's advantage on November 4th despite the lingering racial and ethnic issues. One of those will be the image of a tired, old John McCain standing next to the young, vibrant Barack Obama. Obama may try to prod McCain into an angry moment during the debates. Not many voters warm to McCain as being a likable kind'a guy. One angry outburst may seal his doom at the ballot box.
Odds are Obama will shine through the debates and maintain a slight edge over McCain through the early part of October. That's when things start to get really interesting and where we may have to throw out all the old, well established rule books. I'll talk more about that -- next time...
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